To date, no single commercial seabed mining activity has taken place in international waters, and the development of balanced and stimulating exploitation regulation is needed, based on accurate economic analysis. This paper presents the first detailed, vertically integrated, stochastic techno-economic assessment from a contractor's perspective, and contributes to the development of the world's first exploitation regulations. The economic performance measured by the internal rate of return was compared using deterministic and probabilistic commodity price forecasting models. Different levels of a financial payment regime, comprising of a royalty payment and a payment to internalize environmental costs, were considered. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X1730903X